Deep Backward Point

Blog against the machine.

Tag: India

March 18, 2011

Choosing to Lose

Kartikeya at A Cricketing View analyzes the possibility of a team choosing a tactical defeat in the remaining four games:

In this post, I contemplate a few tactical defeats . A tactical defeat is one in which a team which has a realistic chance of winning, chooses to lose a game by resting key players, or simply by experimenting with batting orders and bowling orders, and letting the other side win in the interest of their position in the tournament. Australia, Pakistan, India, South Africa and West Indies all have this opportunity. [..]

Tactical defeats are unlikely to be of benefit to any side over the remaining three significant games.

Baazigar

Haar kar jeetne wale ko Baazigar kehte hain. (Loosely translated, the one who can lose to win is called a gambler.)


Even though he makes a thorough analysis, he’s wrong. There is one team that can strategically benefit from a defeat– India. They will know the result of all other matches and can choose who to face based on a win or defeat.

∞

Kartikeya is also trying to put together the top team compiled from players at the World Cup based on voting– go vote!

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March 9, 2011

India’s Harbhajan Problem

Sharda Ugra writes what I was going to, but better:

In the last 12 months, [..]  Harbhajan has nine wickets with an economy rate of 4.30, but an average and strike rate that has gone through the floor of his career figures.

At the World Cup so far, it’s two scalps in four games, with an economy rate of 4.07. Were his role just to contain, in this age of heavy bats, small grounds and Twenty20 attitudes, the economy rate could be something he could boast about. For a strike bowler not to be striking, though, is an indication that something is blunted.

Dhoni’s argument is that the batsmen have been content with seeing him off, and then taking on Yuvraj. Which is why Harbhajan is economical, and Yuvraj gets the wickets.

It’s a sound argument, and one that Sangakkara may be trying to make with respect to Muralitharan as well. And as long as India is winning, the argument will stand unchallenged.

As long as India is winning.

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March 8, 2011

Unbeaten

India and Australia remain the only two unbeaten teams in the World Cup so far. And it looks like it will stay that way until Saturday at least.

The difference is that Australia hasn’t been tested yet.

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March 1, 2011

Everything That’s Wrong With World Cup Cricket

Shaun of the Dead

A clean shot to the head may be just what this tournament needs.

The big point everyone seems to be making this week is that the terrific India v. England match last weekend was an excellent advertisement for the sport, brought the tournament alive and proved that One Day cricket is alive and well.

Quite the opposite.

The India v. England match was the exception that proved the rule. It reminded us of how good a One Day match could be, but almost always isn’t.

We have now been through fourteen matches at the World Cup, of which only two have been good-ish and one has been great. That is an abysmal ratio. The India v. England match was the one great day in the first two weeks of the tournament. And that one day won’t even affect who makes it to the quarter-finals.

The next five matches are not very promising either: England v. Ireland, Netherlands v. South Africa, Canada v. Pakistan, Bangladesh v. West Indies.

Maybe we’ll get five more hat-tricks. That will be an excellent advertisement for the sport and bring the tournament to life.

And surely One Day cricket is alive and well.

Until the IPL begins next month.

∞

This is a tournament where the organizers have gone out of their way to make sure that all but one of India’s group matches are on the weekend. Let that sink in for a minute.

The only reason India’s match against the Netherlands is not on a weekend is that the tournament group stage spans five weekends, and India play six matches.

∞

The two good-ish matches I cited above were the Netherlands v. England and Sri Lanka v. Pakistan.

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February 18, 2011

My Predictions for the World Cup

Ok– so this is part whimsy, part wishful thinking and part serendipity.

Group A Ranking:

  1. Australia
  2. Sri Lanka
  3. Pakistan
  4. New Zealand

Group B Ranking:

  1. South Africa
  2. India
  3. England
  4. West Indies (though I’d just as easily say Bangladesh, but I think Ireland may beat Bangladesh which will negate another Bangladesh upset.)

QUARTER FINALS

  • Australia v West Indies
  • Sri Lanka v England
  • Pakistan v India
  • New Zealand v South Africa

SEMI FINALS

  • Australia v India
  • Sri Lanka v South Africa

FINALS
India
v
Sri Lanka

WINNER
India

At least, that’s what I came up with while playing Cricinfo’s Predict the Winner. And even I don’t agree with it.

And it’s in complete contradiction with what I thought was the best path for India to get to the final.

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February 15, 2011

The 2nd-Most Awesome Thing Ever Said About Javed Miandad

 

Miandad and More

Miandad and More

There is a story, perhaps apocryphal, about Sunil Gavaskar’s wife. She was once asked who her favorite batsman was. Here’s what she said:

 

If I wanted someone to bat for my pleasure, I would ask my husband. If I needed someone to bat for my life, I would ask Javed Miandad.

This captures much of what I feel about many things. For example, the iPhone (or the Mac) for pleasure over Android (or Linux) for my life.

∞

This is only the second-most awesome thing anyone has ever said about Javed Miandad. The most awesome was Rashid Latif in Outlook magazine. Latif claimed that, sure, Miandad fixed matches. But only to win them.

Which is patently ridiculous, but awesome all the same. Fixing a match to win it is worse than fixing to lose, because fixing to win means that all the other times you weren’t being paid, you weren’t putting in one hundred percent.

∞

Remember Outlook’s series of match-fixing exposés? They were Tehelka before Tehelka. They were News of the World before News of the World.

Manoj Prabhakar, for his part, claimed that Kapil Dev fixed a match. This brought about the second-most famous incident of cricket related crying, when Kapil cried for Karan Thapar on BBC.

∞

The most famous incident of cricket related crying was Vinod Kambli at Eden Gardens at the World Cup semi-finals.

The rest of the country would have been crying with him, if they had looked up from the burning effigies in their backyard.

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February 8, 2011

The Case Against (and For) Ahmedabad

Jayaditya Gupta recounts the case against Ahmedabad as an international cricket destination:

Scyld Berry unequivocally called it “without doubt the most unpopular venue on the whole international cricket circuit”. Michael Henderson, writing after England’s engagement here on their 2001-02 tour: “Rarely can a group of sportsmen have been so relieved to put a place behind them, a place of dirt, unrelieved boredom, inadequate facilities, no booze, and, in England’s case, illness.” More recently Paul Winslow of the Barmy Army said Ahmedabad had “little else to offer” other than cricket.

Jayaditya Gupta’s adopted home is Ahmedabad. It’s mine as well– I’ve spent every summer and many weekends of my childhood there, playing lonely cricket against a wall, playing cricket with family, playing book cricket, playing the table-top cricket game Gold Cup, watching cricket, and so forth.

Ahmedabad Panorama by Hardik Jadeja

Some day, I’ll write an ode to Gold Cup. And to book cricket. And to lonely cricket against a wall.

Gupta tries to lay down the case for the city:

Yet slowly I saw the similarity with, first, my native east – in the sweetness, metaphorically, of the language, and in the sweetness, literally, of the food – and with the West, in the professionalism of my colleagues, in their time-management (time is money: in the six years I spent in Gujarat, not one day’s work was missed on account of a general strike or political agitation, unlike the countless man-days lost in union-run Bengal). I saw a society that was inherently democratic, reflected in the universal suffix “bhai” or “ben” appended to all names, regardless of age, caste, creed.

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February 6, 2011

The Sachin Tendulkar Era: Part I

One Hundred and Thirty Nine cricketers have represented India in One Day Internationals since Sachin Tendulkar made his debut against Pakistan in November 1989.

This is their story.

The Sachin Era- Part I

The Sachin Era- Part I

[Click for larger version] [Click for PDF with ability to zoom all the way in on every name]

Acknowledgements: Created with the help of Cricinfo Statsguru, Wordle, MS Excel, custom Python scripts and Acorn.

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January 31, 2011

India’s Path to the World Cup Finals

Never Again

Never Again.

The Cricket World Cup is still three weeks away, but it’s never too early to lay out a hypothetical situation.

The Group of Death
The fourteen teams competing in the World Cup are divided into two groups. The top four in each will make it to the quarter-finals.

First, take a look at the two groups:

Group B Group A
  • Bangladesh
  • England
  • India
  • Ireland
  • Netherlands
  • South Africa
  • West Indies
  • Australia
  • Canada
  • Kenya
  • New Zealand
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka
  • Zimbabwe

One of these things is not like the other. Clearly, based on recent form, Group B is the group of death.

100 Hundred Overs = 98 Ad Breaks
Thankfully for the members of Group B, cricket is ruled by a powerful few, and their television revenues. The ICC cannot afford (another) World Cup where the most popular teams fail to make it to the later rounds. For this reason, four teams from each group will qualify for the next round– which should make sure most, if not all, of the high advertising-revenue countries will play the quarter-finals.

Note: Of course, major upsets are always possible, as we saw in 2003. And 2007. Just ask Bob Woolmer. In all seriousness, statistically, a single upset among eight teams is likely. If I had to guess, Bangladesh could beat West Indies to a quarter-final slot. Pakistan, New Zealand and India also have the tendency to vastly under or over-perform, but never meet expectations.

So, in all likelihood, the usual suspects will make it to the quarter-finals. For sake of argument, my nominal prediction:

  • A1: Australia
  • A2: Sri Lanka
  • A3: New Zealand
  • A4: Pakistan
  • B1: South Africa
  • B2: India
  • B3: England
  • B4: West Indies

For the most part, the ranking within the group does not matter. You could come fourth in your group, and still make the quarter-finals. Except, if you’re in Group B, this will likely mean you have an early date with Australia.

[Note: And no one wants an early date with Australia. Not even New Zealand. They live next door, they would know.]

On the other hand, a top-three place within Group B would (likely) ensure avoiding Australia until at least the semi-final. The other three potential opponents are deadly on their day– and Sri Lanka in the sub-continent can be lethal– but if I had to choose when to meet Australia, I would choose the finals.

[Note: In reality, I would choose never, or when the moon turned blue, or when Ponting returns to form.]

[Note: Note to self: never bet against Ponting.]

Location, Location, Location
There is another wrinkle in the story.

If India finish second or fourth in their group, they play their quarter-finals in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

If India finish third in their group, they play in Colombo, Sri Lanka. If, simultaneously, Sri Lanka finish second in their group India play Sri Lanka in Colombo. Short of playing Australia, this is probably the second worst-case quarter-final scenario.

Here’s the best case: If India finish at the top of their group, they play at Sardar Patel Stadium in Ahmedabad, India. India does not have a terrific One Day record in Ahmedabad (winning only five of twelve), but they would prefer a home ground to Dhaka or Colombo any day.

[Note: India has a better record at Dhaka, but that’s only because they played Bangladesh. The three times they have lost were to Sri Lanka and Pakistan. India’s recent record at the Premadasa in Colombo, isn’t too bad either. They have defeated Sri Lanka five of the last seven times in the past two years.]

As an added benefit, the winner here would play their semi-final in Mohali instead of Colombo. And everybody loves Mohali, right? Right?

[Note: India have lost their last three ODIs in Mohali.]

#1, #1. #1
In short, while the early stages of the World Cup are largely meaningless (as they have been for some time), there are a few minor goals to shoot for.

If they finish in the top three in their group, India may be able to avoid Australia. For now.

If the they finish on top, they have the home advantage and most likely avoid Australia until the finals. And avoid a repeat of 2003. And hope someone else beats Australia before them.

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January 28, 2011

A Royal Pair at Moti Baug in Baroda

This is where I watched my first cricket match ever– Australia Vs. Rest of India in ’86– and my first international– India Vs. Sri Lanka in ’87. Writes Bharat Sundaresan for Indian Express:

The Prince of Udaipur leaps in joy as his team vanquishes yet another opponent with consummate ease while not far away, the Yuvraj of Baroda sits morosely, wondering about what could have been. [..]

[P]icturesque Moti Baug ground in Baroda offers a regal blast-from-the-past, a ‘royal tent’. It’s from here that the Gaekwads have lent their gracious presence for cricket matches during the last century.

“The tent used to be much bigger, but unfortunately it got eaten up by termites. I have grown up watching cricket from here,” says Samarjitsingh, presently a member of the Baroda Cricket Association.

Later, the prince of Rajasthan says:

“I am sure the souls of the past greats from my state, including my grandfather, will be popping champagne bottles as we speak”

Not in this dry state they won’t. Even souls can’t drink in Gujarat. Unless they’re considered other-worldly foreigners, in which case they can show their passport and get a permit.

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