Cricket | Deep Backward Point

March 1, 2011

A Statistician’s Perfect World Cup

Statistician Anantha Narayanan spends some time looking back at World Cups past. But that’s not what’s interesting at that link.

In the comments section of the article, Narayanan describes the “best” format for a future World Cup:

However the best is the all-play-all and then nothing or a 3-match final.

This is a terrible idea. It’s a statistician’s idea of a perfect World Cup, wherein we would produce the most statistically perfect winner in an unacceptably dull tournament. Imagine that two teams dominated the first couple of weeks of the tournament– every other game would become irrelevant, since only two teams could get anywhere.

In other words, it would be a lot like the current World Cup– where we can safely ignore all matches until the end of March– but worse.

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February 17, 2011

The Associates Portfolio

On the subject of the Associate nations, Ducking Beamers makes a good point:

[O]f all the Associates, I think Ireland and Afghanistan have the most potential. I say this not to disparage the likes of Canada or Kenya or the Netherlands. No, this is simple geography: the Irish are a good team in part due to the proximity to England, and Afghanistan’s squad was born in Pakistan. These teams make sense and we’d be stupid to let them slip back into obscurity.

Now if only someone could come up with a plan to save New Zealand

Like I said, I wouldn’t mind trading NZ and WI for a couple of scrappy associates.

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February 6, 2011

The Sachin Tendulkar Era: Part I

One Hundred and Thirty Nine cricketers have represented India in One Day Internationals since Sachin Tendulkar made his debut against Pakistan in November 1989.

This is their story.

The Sachin Era- Part I

[Click for larger version] [Click for PDF with ability to zoom all the way in on every name]

Acknowledgements: Created with the help of Cricinfo Statsguru, Wordle, MS Excel, custom Python scripts and Acorn.

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February 2, 2011

A Mars Bar at Good Length

Steven Lynch makes a list of the beefiest cricketers in history.

On Ranatunga:

Shane Warne was once despairing of luring Ranatunga out of his crease to maximise the possibility of a stumping: wicketkeeper Ian Healy helpfully advised: “Put a Mars bar on a good length, that should do it.” Ranatunga, whose bat once sported an advert for “Sam’s Chicken and Ribs”, shot back “if you do, I bet David Boon will get there first”.

And some epic bit of sledging from the portly Jimmy Ormond:

[Ormond was] berated by Mark Waugh as not good enough for Test cricket, he replied: “At least I’m the best cricketer in my family.”

Also, anyone remember Dwayne Leverock’s moment of glory?

Dwayne Leverock of Bermuda takes Robin Uthappa's catch at the 2007 World Cup

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January 31, 2011

India’s Path to the World Cup Finals

Never Again.

The Cricket World Cup is still three weeks away, but it’s never too early to lay out a hypothetical situation.

The Group of Death
The fourteen teams competing in the World Cup are divided into two groups. The top four in each will make it to the quarter-finals.

First, take a look at the two groups:

Group B	Group A
Bangladesh England India Ireland Netherlands South Africa West Indies	Australia Canada Kenya New Zealand Pakistan Sri Lanka Zimbabwe

One of these things is not like the other. Clearly, based on recent form, Group B is the group of death.

100 Hundred Overs = 98 Ad Breaks
Thankfully for the members of Group B, cricket is ruled by a powerful few, and their television revenues. The ICC cannot afford (another) World Cup where the most popular teams fail to make it to the later rounds. For this reason, four teams from each group will qualify for the next round– which should make sure most, if not all, of the high advertising-revenue countries will play the quarter-finals.

Note: Of course, major upsets are always possible, as we saw in 2003. And 2007. Just ask Bob Woolmer. In all seriousness, statistically, a single upset among eight teams is likely. If I had to guess, Bangladesh could beat West Indies to a quarter-final slot. Pakistan, New Zealand and India also have the tendency to vastly under or over-perform, but never meet expectations.

So, in all likelihood, the usual suspects will make it to the quarter-finals. For sake of argument, my nominal prediction:

A1: Australia
A2: Sri Lanka
A3: New Zealand
A4: Pakistan
B1: South Africa
B2: India
B3: England
B4: West Indies

For the most part, the ranking within the group does not matter. You could come fourth in your group, and still make the quarter-finals. Except, if you’re in Group B, this will likely mean you have an early date with Australia.

[Note: And no one wants an early date with Australia. Not even New Zealand. They live next door, they would know.]

On the other hand, a top-three place within Group B would (likely) ensure avoiding Australia until at least the semi-final. The other three potential opponents are deadly on their day– and Sri Lanka in the sub-continent can be lethal– but if I had to choose when to meet Australia, I would choose the finals.

[Note: In reality, I would choose never, or when the moon turned blue, or when Ponting returns to form.]

[Note: Note to self: never bet against Ponting.]

Location, Location, Location
There is another wrinkle in the story.

If India finish second or fourth in their group, they play their quarter-finals in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

If India finish third in their group, they play in Colombo, Sri Lanka. If, simultaneously, Sri Lanka finish second in their group India play Sri Lanka in Colombo. Short of playing Australia, this is probably the second worst-case quarter-final scenario.

Here’s the best case: If India finish at the top of their group, they play at Sardar Patel Stadium in Ahmedabad, India. India does not have a terrific One Day record in Ahmedabad (winning only five of twelve), but they would prefer a home ground to Dhaka or Colombo any day.

[Note: India has a better record at Dhaka, but that’s only because they played Bangladesh. The three times they have lost were to Sri Lanka and Pakistan. India’s recent record at the Premadasa in Colombo, isn’t too bad either. They have defeated Sri Lanka five of the last seven times in the past two years.]

As an added benefit, the winner here would play their semi-final in Mohali instead of Colombo. And everybody loves Mohali, right? Right?

[Note: India have lost their last three ODIs in Mohali.]

#1, #1. #1
In short, while the early stages of the World Cup are largely meaningless (as they have been for some time), there are a few minor goals to shoot for.

If they finish in the top three in their group, India may be able to avoid Australia. For now.

If the they finish on top, they have the home advantage and most likely avoid Australia until the finals. And avoid a repeat of 2003. And hope someone else beats Australia before them.

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January 28, 2011

A Royal Pair at Moti Baug in Baroda

This is where I watched my first cricket match ever– Australia Vs. Rest of India in ’86– and my first international– India Vs. Sri Lanka in ’87. Writes Bharat Sundaresan for Indian Express:

The Prince of Udaipur leaps in joy as his team vanquishes yet another opponent with consummate ease while not far away, the Yuvraj of Baroda sits morosely, wondering about what could have been. [..]

[P]icturesque Moti Baug ground in Baroda offers a regal blast-from-the-past, a ‘royal tent’. It’s from here that the Gaekwads have lent their gracious presence for cricket matches during the last century.

“The tent used to be much bigger, but unfortunately it got eaten up by termites. I have grown up watching cricket from here,” says Samarjitsingh, presently a member of the Baroda Cricket Association.

Later, the prince of Rajasthan says:

“I am sure the souls of the past greats from my state, including my grandfather, will be popping champagne bottles as we speak”

Not in this dry state they won’t. Even souls can’t drink in Gujarat. Unless they’re considered other-worldly foreigners, in which case they can show their passport and get a permit.

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January 27, 2011

One-day cricket’s acid test

Bhogle waxes poetic about the potential for another insipid world cup, but manages to avoid mentioning the elephant in the room– Twenty20.

If indeed the viewership and attendance tend to be too strongly skewed, if games not involving the top four or five leave people disenchanted, it would mean that the ICC’s decision to have no more than 10 teams for the 2015 World Cup is right.

It’s a tournament planned to maximize television revenue. It’s a form of the game that’s simultaneously too long and too short. A leaner, meaner version in 2015 may be fine, but euthanasia is even better.

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January 25, 2011

All the King’s Men

Imran Khan, on the the Pakistani musical chairs:

Mr. Khan said Pakistan cricket’s biggest mistake was changing the captains too often. “Tell me in which country is the (PCB) chairman or captain changed if a team loses. We make this mistake all the time, but we need to improve our system. Since I retired so many captains have been changed. It has served no purpose,” he said.

But former Test captains Aamir Sohail and Javed Miandad, who were also on the show, reminded Mr. Khan that in Pakistan the cricket system was different. “In no country was the board chairman nominated by the President nor did he enjoy the sweeping powers he enjoyed in Pakistan which led to unilateral decisions and problems in the team,” they said.

via The Hindu : Sport News : End ad-hocism, govt interference in cricket: Imran. (h/t Mitul)

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January 23, 2011

Welcome to Deep Backward Point

Welcome to my blog about cricket.

Who am I?

As a kid growing up in Chicago, my first experience with cricket was when my father and his friends would get together to play on Sundays. There would be elaborate suiting-up and a little play, and then we’d all go out for Indian food.

That was before Gavaskar came to town. The first cricket match I ever saw was an exhibition match between the visiting Indian team and a local team outside Chicago in the early ’80s. My father instilled in me a sense of awe about Gavaskar. We got to meet him. Within 24 hours I had gone from never hearing his name to having discovered a new hero.

Me "playing" cricket

And then we moved to India. And cricket became my first love. This was the era of Gavaskar’s wide-brimmed hat, Vengsarkar at Lords, mustache-chewing Kris, and India coming off a World Cup winning high.

And then? Then came Tendulkar, after which it was a short 20-year hop, skip and a jump to becoming the best Indian team in history.

In the mean time, I moved back to the United States. I now live in Boston, getting my cricket fix through Willow.tv or living vicariously through Cricinfo.

Yes, but that doesn’t tell me if I’ll like your blog

Ok. Here are my cricket quirks:

Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar. That’s all.
Test cricket is better than Twenty20.
Twenty20 is better than One Day cricket.
Cricket was my first mathematics teacher: keeping a running count of the required run-rate was enough to get me through about 8th grade.
Which brings me to statistics. I love cricket statistics.
I read old scorecards and player statistics as if they were great works of fiction. I love how a scorecard tells a story, how I can picture what happened. There’s no footage of Kapil at Turnbridge Wells, but anyone who has seen that scorecard can see that innings in their mind’s eye.
I watched every match played at Vadodara (Moti bagh and IPCL stadiums) in the time I lived there. India won every time. Except when New Zealand played The Netherlands.

What will I blog about?

My hope is to give context on players, teams and quirks of history through statistics and historical perspective. I’m not an expert player or analyst. What I am is tenacious.

I will be posting long-form on this blog about once a week. During the week, I will add pointers to interesting things I find around the web.

If you read my blog, I hope you’ll encourage me with comments and likes along the way.

OK, why is it called Deep Backward Point?
Because when I have a point, it’s fairly deep and mostly backwards.

Enjoy!

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Tag: Cricket